Pulwama attack aftermath,why can't india launch military action against Pakistan.
A Challenge Called, 'China-Pak' Duo !
When it comes to thinking about a possible result of a India-pak military confrontation,we are fairly confident of having a dominance over the situation. But what will be the magnitude of destruction on the Indian side and at what cost such a 'win over the situation,' will come to us suddenly wakes up all of us and then follows apprehensions as how to execute a military action plan against Pakistan? Similarly, but in a different situation with a different country, China if we recognize it as India's major threat in the continent apprehensions takes the first place and whether to go for a military confrontation, the answer is definitely,"no." The question is how and why we have these two different responses to war situations with these two of our continental allies ? Let's consider some of the facts which surrounds the 'trio,' India, Pakistan and china . Firstly, all three of them are 'nuclear-armed' nations and India has fought wars with rest of the two at multiple occasions, experiences of which are war to war different,(i.e. mixed) but sense of loss and bitterness of the situation is more common and prevalent than occasional jubilation which we always try to keep ahead of those bitter experiences to keep the moral high of our citizens and of the armed forces.
The UNSC condemnation of the pulwama terror attack making an official statement has shown how India in this short period of time managed to gather support from international community on the issue,credit for which should go to the indian diplomats and of course to the govt. Of India. China had a problem with the language of the official UNSC statement in referring JeM as terror group and wanted pulwama to be referred as a place in Indian occupied Kashmir. In this article, I wish to put in place the context from where we can search for both the typical 'warfare psychology,' earlier mentioned in this article and impediments of a 'strategic-military,' operation, either required dealing against Pakistan or China . Let's see how things work for 'trio' in this geopolitical region. First, China and Pakistan are playing 'strategic-military duo,' in the region which means any coercive action against one of them will inevitably draw the other to jump into the situation and make out maximum benefits in their own interests because both of them recognizes India as their primary enemy in achieving peace and development. This Lock and key relationship of the two(China and Pakistan) had chocked Indian diplomats while freely making a military operation policies against any of the two.
The other problem around the situation is trade, commerce and macro-economic stability of India itself. At present India ranks 5th by GDP(nominal) and 3rd by PPP, in amount it was around 2597.49 USD in 2017. In the first quarter of 2018-19 the economy grew at an incredible 8.2%(keeping aside for the moment the jobless growth debate). In comparison to this pakistan today is largely seen as a 'failed-state,' with economy crumbling to where two months of reserve for trade export is left with . Contrary to this let's cross-check the series of facts for China. A bigger Challenge to india's perspectives. China has surpassed the US as the world's largest trading nation in 2002(by the sum of exports and imports). A position held by US for more than six decades. At present China has the largest car market, energy user,largest foreign currency reserve and is biggest exporter since 2009, with GDP growth rate of an average 9.9% for more than three decades since 1970
. Today 124 countries recognizes China to be their largest trade partner vis-a-vis of 76 recognizing US. In the present US-China trade scenerio, China has surplus of 323 billion dollars. With the contribution to the global growth as much as one-third. Making two paradigm shifts in economic policies China at present is focusing on stimulating domestic demand which will improve inputs to growth and secondly the 'high-speed' growth understanding has been switched to 'high-quality,' growth. However during 2018 its economy slowed down to a 28 year low at 6.8% but still World Bank has estimated its GDP growth to remain at 6.2 for the 2018-19. The economic growth rate fell because of weaker growth in investment and exports and it remained 6.5% in the 3rd quarter of 2018.
Along with these china is also focusing towards poverty elevation and social spending whereas India in last four and half years budget allocation for social spending has continuously been undermined except for the interim budget in February 2019, also pointed out by Jean Dreze in his article in Indian Express(Feb,16,2019,edition). 800 million people were elevated out of poverty
and China achieved 'middle-income' status for itself. This social spending will improve qualities of public health,education, and social security which in turn will create jobs and enhance public service and will better support vulnerable families and encourage households to invest and not just save. The labour force has astonishing number of 803.6 million with unemployment 3.97% and inflation (CPI) calculated at 2.1%. In public finances it has received revenues of 2.94 trillion USD and expenses of 3.46 trillion USD for 2018
. The free-trade agreement China has with, includes countries like members of the ASEAN, Australia, Newzealand, Pakistan, S.korea,and Switzerland and these are strong investment ties. Lastly, I would include the BRI(belt & road intiative),
this one ambitious effort by China will improve regional cooperation and trans-continental connectivity. The intiative aims to strengthen trade,investment and infrastructure between China and 65 other countries which will account for 30% of global GDP and cover 62% of world's population and draw to it's functioning 75% of known energy resources. The World Bank commitment to invest 80 billion USD in BRI infrastructure has further strengthen chinese ambitions.
These are only some of the seemingly endless list of facts advocating for China's position as the next global leader. Any circumstantial provocative action may lead to bizzare consequences for India from economic as well as military perspective. India needs to engage diplomatically more and more countries in Asia and Europe specially those which are relatively stronger than others in terms of economy, military power and technological advancement for instance in Asia japan, s.korea..etc. Any diplomatic isolation of Pakistan doesn't addresses the other key challenges india faces in south Asian region. Geo-politically we are at a vulnerable location and at the same time have hostile relations with some of our south Asian allies. China in contrast to this has developed a well-defined path to go along with india. It can improve trade,sign MOUs ,held talks but never to become a trustworthy startegic partner for one simple reason,it will not embolden india's stature either at UN or elsewhere because it doesn't want global growth and development projects to divert to India and a threat to develop for it's own existence in the region. Two 'arch-rival,' modern nation states, decendents of two ancient civilizations are competing for a leading position in the world for the sake of their own better tommorow . It wouldn't be easy for us unless we decode better the Chinese civilization, it's culture, language and politics including it's moral and immoral ways of dealing with the world, because China will resort to all possible alternatives available to them while dealing with an adversary like India.
Suman Kumar.
(Sources -World Bank reports,IMF,Cnn,reuters..etc.)
When it comes to thinking about a possible result of a India-pak military confrontation,we are fairly confident of having a dominance over the situation. But what will be the magnitude of destruction on the Indian side and at what cost such a 'win over the situation,' will come to us suddenly wakes up all of us and then follows apprehensions as how to execute a military action plan against Pakistan? Similarly, but in a different situation with a different country, China if we recognize it as India's major threat in the continent apprehensions takes the first place and whether to go for a military confrontation, the answer is definitely,"no." The question is how and why we have these two different responses to war situations with these two of our continental allies ? Let's consider some of the facts which surrounds the 'trio,' India, Pakistan and china . Firstly, all three of them are 'nuclear-armed' nations and India has fought wars with rest of the two at multiple occasions, experiences of which are war to war different,(i.e. mixed) but sense of loss and bitterness of the situation is more common and prevalent than occasional jubilation which we always try to keep ahead of those bitter experiences to keep the moral high of our citizens and of the armed forces.
The UNSC condemnation of the pulwama terror attack making an official statement has shown how India in this short period of time managed to gather support from international community on the issue,credit for which should go to the indian diplomats and of course to the govt. Of India. China had a problem with the language of the official UNSC statement in referring JeM as terror group and wanted pulwama to be referred as a place in Indian occupied Kashmir. In this article, I wish to put in place the context from where we can search for both the typical 'warfare psychology,' earlier mentioned in this article and impediments of a 'strategic-military,' operation, either required dealing against Pakistan or China . Let's see how things work for 'trio' in this geopolitical region. First, China and Pakistan are playing 'strategic-military duo,' in the region which means any coercive action against one of them will inevitably draw the other to jump into the situation and make out maximum benefits in their own interests because both of them recognizes India as their primary enemy in achieving peace and development. This Lock and key relationship of the two(China and Pakistan) had chocked Indian diplomats while freely making a military operation policies against any of the two.
The other problem around the situation is trade, commerce and macro-economic stability of India itself. At present India ranks 5th by GDP(nominal) and 3rd by PPP, in amount it was around 2597.49 USD in 2017. In the first quarter of 2018-19 the economy grew at an incredible 8.2%(keeping aside for the moment the jobless growth debate). In comparison to this pakistan today is largely seen as a 'failed-state,' with economy crumbling to where two months of reserve for trade export is left with . Contrary to this let's cross-check the series of facts for China. A bigger Challenge to india's perspectives. China has surpassed the US as the world's largest trading nation in 2002(by the sum of exports and imports). A position held by US for more than six decades. At present China has the largest car market, energy user,largest foreign currency reserve and is biggest exporter since 2009, with GDP growth rate of an average 9.9% for more than three decades since 1970
Along with these china is also focusing towards poverty elevation and social spending whereas India in last four and half years budget allocation for social spending has continuously been undermined except for the interim budget in February 2019, also pointed out by Jean Dreze in his article in Indian Express(Feb,16,2019,edition). 800 million people were elevated out of poverty
These are only some of the seemingly endless list of facts advocating for China's position as the next global leader. Any circumstantial provocative action may lead to bizzare consequences for India from economic as well as military perspective. India needs to engage diplomatically more and more countries in Asia and Europe specially those which are relatively stronger than others in terms of economy, military power and technological advancement for instance in Asia japan, s.korea..etc. Any diplomatic isolation of Pakistan doesn't addresses the other key challenges india faces in south Asian region. Geo-politically we are at a vulnerable location and at the same time have hostile relations with some of our south Asian allies. China in contrast to this has developed a well-defined path to go along with india. It can improve trade,sign MOUs ,held talks but never to become a trustworthy startegic partner for one simple reason,it will not embolden india's stature either at UN or elsewhere because it doesn't want global growth and development projects to divert to India and a threat to develop for it's own existence in the region. Two 'arch-rival,' modern nation states, decendents of two ancient civilizations are competing for a leading position in the world for the sake of their own better tommorow . It wouldn't be easy for us unless we decode better the Chinese civilization, it's culture, language and politics including it's moral and immoral ways of dealing with the world, because China will resort to all possible alternatives available to them while dealing with an adversary like India.
Suman Kumar.
(Sources -World Bank reports,IMF,Cnn,reuters..etc.)
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